Notes on a bug in: week 3

So mi casa just completed three weeks of near total bug in. In the absence of a therapeutic emerging that transforms everything (its pretty clear at this point that it would have to cut way into the case fatality rate and, more generally, the ventilator use rate) it looks like this might be the situation for months.

  1. Have larger stocks of toilet paper, paper towels, trash bags

We have large stocks of all of these but, if there was a weak point, it was toilet paper and paper towels. We had a lot compared with the average household (probably about 100 rolls) but not necessarily enough to feel comfortable about a prolonged bug in. We topped off a little in February so we are fine, but what if this had been a sudden event? I am always a little skittish about having a ton of paper goods in the house since we live in the South and bugs might be an issue. Maybe I was a little too conservative about this.

2. Canned goods, pasta, dog food

Our stocks of these are good. Probably 3 months of canned food (mostly vegetables, tuna, salmon, fruit), 60 or so pounds of pasta and 2 rotations of dog food. We added a bunch to this in February but I think this is going to push us toward maintaining a 6 month supply of cans, maybe 100 pounds of pasta and 5 rotations of dog food as a regular thing.

3. Inventory, inventory, inventory

We have an inventory control system for our food and other prep items, and we maintain it pretty well. This proved really crucial for knowing exactly where we would need to top off in February. That said there were some lapses. For instance, I had been lazy about inventory checking on our less than lethal weapons, particularly pepper spray, a bunch of which had expired and needed to restock. So maybe the lesson here is don’t forget the “little” stuff.

4. Switch to 1 gallon water containers

I have had a long standing debate with myself about the correct size for water storage containers. If I had a prepper compound somewhere I’d probably have cisterns (as well as multiple wells, a pond and access to streams). But I live in a suburban development. I have a 55 gallon barrel of water in my garage, but living in the South this has been a less than successful experiment (pretty much no matter what I do crap starts growing in it in the heat of the summer heat and humidity). So I have the fall back of storage in the house. For this I have been torn between 5 gallon water bottles (the kind at your office water fountain) and 1 gallon containers (I usually buy the Kirkland ones from Costco in 6 packs). After a month of trying to find space to pack extra stuff in and still have our house look good, I am sold on the 1 gallon option. Their smaller size just gives you more options for packing stuff in.

5. Pails, pails, pails.

I have a lot of long term stuff in smaller packets. For example, we have a lot of Mountain House Backpacker meals, smaller cans of Augason Farms stuff, etc. This smaller size (particularly the Mountain House backpacker meals) have the killer advantage of portability. That said, I think we are likely to increase our larger container storage inventory after this. We already had some big pails. For instance, we have a 14 pound pail of Augason Farms powdered milk (this makes maybe 18 gallons of milk). I think in future we will have 2 of these, as well as a big pail of salt. These big containers can be thought of as our last bug in fall backs and it is nice to have some big central reserves of some core stuff. They are a pain to store (they are bulky and dont pack in easily) but I have concluded that they are worth it.

6 . Gasoline

I have long maintained a 10 gallon reserve of gasoline and just kept rotating the reserves through my vehicles. I did this in anticipation primarily of a grid down type situation. That said this was a very reassuring backup in this situation because it allows me to avoid gas stations. I have long had a theory that gas stations are important spread points for the flu, and you can see how this would work with covid-19: you handle the gas pump and then touch your face as you drive away. I am also very glad we have had our long standing habit of maintaining full tanks of gas on our vehicles.

7. Battle ready guns

Here I get a C. I have a good inventory but I am lazy about cleaning and checking things like batteries in lights. I plowed through this in the past week and I am now good to go. But I need to be better about having some absolutely battle ready guns at all times. I was lucky this is a so (comparatively) slow moving crisis and could address my failures at my leisure. Next time we might not be so lucky.

8. Vitamins, vitamins, vitamins

We have a bunch of these, but I think that in future we will store even more. When you start thinking about possible food shortages, gaps that could open up, etc. knowing that you have vitamins is a tremendous reassurance. I think we will have a several year supply when this is done.

9. Meat

We have tons of meat and I’m not worried about it for this crisis. But if this was a power loss kind of situation I wouldnt feel so good. Too much of our meat is in freezers. I am not suggesting we will reduce the stock of frozen meat, but I think we need to add more things like No. 10 cans of Mountain House ground beef and chicken. We need more. We need stocks that rival our freezer stocks. Lets say 5-6 months of this.

10. Keep house repairs current

On the Nextdoor social media site I have seen people asking about things like recommendations for roofers. They need a new roof and had been sitting on it for a couple of years. I think that urgent repairs like these are now going to be pretty dicey. In the last year I replaced my roof, HVAC and water heater short of their sell by date. Yes, that costs money. But not having to worry about that now is priceless.

11. Mail in medicine

One thing I procrastinated on was rearranging to have all of our household’s prescriptions arrive by mail. I have now straightened this out but should have done so earlier. It would probably be better to avoid unnecessary trips to the pharmacy (or any kind of trips for that matter) during this crisis. In the event that we have a crisis where this kind of delivery mechanism failed, it is unlikely that we would be able to get prescriptions directly from the pharmacy anyway.

12. Batteries

One thing we didn’t have to worry about is batteries. We do a huge once a year battery inventory in our household, usually timed to the beginning of hurricane season. It was so nice not to have to think about this in the past month or so and focus on other last minute preps.

13. Fruit

Fruit is a major issue. We have a bunch but with everyone bugged in we are going through it at a stunning rate. There may come a point where it is too dangerous to go out at all or get deliveries and we will be down to dried fruit (which we have a bunch of). But in future I plan to revisit this issue with more canned fruit and more dried fruit.

14. Doritos.

Let’s get down to brass tacks: even adults can agree that Doritos were bestowed on us by the Gods. All kidding aside, we have a kid in our house and this is going to be a rough experience for them. One thing we did after core top off preps were done is to buy a bunch of fun food for kids. In our case this included Doritos, potato chips, bake mixes, pancake mix and syrup, etc. This is more about the psychological side of the equation and creates some crucial happy moments for kids. Adults need these things too (I made sure certain key bourbon and sipping wine stocks were flush). You will have opportunities to address some of this online in coming weeks (see point 15).

15. Never stop prepping. Never stop building.

I don’t need to tell anyone that Amazon, Costco, etc. are out of a lot of essential stuff. This morning I looked at Ammoseek and they have exactly one (one) option for 77 grain 5.56 ammunition. But every morning and late every night I am surfing a bit and here and there stuff pops up. Last night I scored some number 10 cans of Mountain House breaksfast skillet and 2X6 packs of Mountain House beef stroganoff meals. Two nights ago I actually found 2X50 round boxes of Black Hills 77 grain SMK 5.56 ammunition. By hunting and pecking here and there you can find stuff and everything you find is deepening your preps and extending your bug in run way.

Guns 101: Part 1

Guns are a key part of being prepared. If there is a major disruption they can be an essential source of security and food. This leads to my 12th rule of prepping:

Rule 12. Slaves and the dead are unarmed

This sounds harsh and intentionally so. You don’t want to be unarmed two months into a grid collapse. Trust me about that.

Before moving on, I need to acknowlege and emphasize that guns are a necessary but not sufficient condition for successful prepping. This is why my next rule of prepping is:

Rule 13. You can’t eat or drink bullets

But more on that later. The focus here is Rule 12.

Guns are a topic that makes a lot of people uncomfortable. This is not wholly unreasonable. Guns are dangerous and people do a lot of stupid things with them (just like they do with, say, cars). But some of the fear, and maybe some of the stupidity, is probably driven by a lack of familiarity.

Guns certainly are not the only weapons you can , or should, use when prepping. But at the same time guns are indispensable. I have run into preppers with a great aversion to guns who argue that their substitute, such as a recurve bow, is just as effective. Well, the probability of someone with a recurve defeating someone with an AR-15, for instance, isn’t zero. But it is low. Very low. In the rock, paper, scissors game in a post-disruption world without the rule of law, guns break most other weapons and defensive schemes. You should not kid yourself about that.

In this and a long series of posts to come I am going to provide an introduction to guns. I write under the assumption that the reader knows nothing about them and build from there. If you know everything up to a certain point, jump in then. Alternatively, simplification can sometimes lead to potentially misleading statements (e.g. missing important exceptions to general truths). If you feel I have done this, please call me out and I will edit appropriately.

Let’s begin at the most basic departure point:

A (“rifle”) cartridge

A gun is a device that uses a cartridge (pictured above, showing a shape often associated with “rifle’ cartridges) to deliver concentrated energy to a target via a bullet (1). The two major parts of a cartridge are the bullet (1) and the casing (2). Generally speaking, guns ignite the primer at the bottom of a casing, which then sets off a larger charge within the casing.

The bullet is the part that is shot out of the gun. The casing of the round being fired is immobilized in the chamber of the gun. This is a section of the barrel (on many guns it is technically an extension of the barrel, but let’s not worry about that) in which the round to be fired is placed ready to be fired. It is usually held in the chamber by the bolt of the gun.

The ignition of the primer (by the gun driving what is called a firing pin into the primer) and then of the charge by the primer causes gas expansion, the mounting pressure from which in turn causes the bullet to separate from the casing and accelerate down the barrel.

The energy involved in this is basically constrained within the narrow barrel between the bolt and the back of the bullet. That constrained energy feeds the acceleration of the bullet to its final velocity when it leaves the barrel. The bullet then travels beyond the muzzle of the gun.

Its trajectory thereafter reflects three basic forces. Atmospheric resistance causes it to slow, until other things being equal, it comes to a stop. Gravity causes the bullet path to fall relative to a straight line out of the barrel. Finally, atmospheric movement of air (i.e. wind) causes shifts in its trajectory as they act on the bullet. These forces operate on the bullet until it either hits something or comes to a rest somewhere.

That’s it, in essence.

To round out the anatomy of a cartridge, from the image above we have the neck (3), shoulder (4), rim (5) and base (6). The details and implications of these are not super important for now.

For those a little lost, below is another cross-sectional diagram of a cartridge, this time showing a profile more typical of a “pistol” cartridge (though to be sure, many rifles accept cartridges that look like this; for an example, Google “30 carbine” to see the cartridge for the M1 Carbine rifle from WWII) . Note the lack of a defined neck and shoulder. The bullet (1) is at the top of the cartridge and seated a bit in it. Striking the primer (5) ignites the charge (3), causing the bullet (1) to separate from the casing (2) and travel down the barrel.

A “pistol” cartridge

From the operational basics of a gun flows two big realities:

  1. What bullets actually deliver is kinetic energy, which is the energy associated with an object due to its motion. And the kinetic energy of an object is its mass times (m) the square of its velocity (v):
    e=m*v2

    In terms of the energy delivered by a bullet, there are two big implications. First, there is a big payoff in terms of kinetic energy to higher bullet mass m, which is usually measured in grains (there are 7,000 grains in a pound). Second, there is an even more quickly growing payoff to the increasing velocity at which a round travels v (usually measured in feet per second). If someone threw a bullet at your chest, you would say “owww!”. If they shot it out of a gun at your chest you might be killed. The difference mainly reflects the implications of velocity for kinetic energy.
  2. The damage a bullet does can depend on how the energy is delivered at the point of impact with the target. Some bullets designs concentrate energy (e.g. armor piercing bullets, which are in simple terms very hard and try to concentrate a huge amount of energy at a point to overcome great resistance) and some effectively act essentially to spread it (e.g. so-called “hollow point” rounds, which generally maximize damage to softer targets).
  3. The flight performance of a bullet once it leaves the barrel can also depend heavily on bullet design. For instance, some bullets experience a large amount of air resistance as captured in a low drag coefficient. This may or may not be a big deal depended on the intended mission of the bullet. For example, the AK-47 cartridge, the famous 7.62X39mm (also sometimes called the “7.62 Soviet”), has a generally low drag coefficient compared with many cartridges for similar guns. But the AK-47 was designed primarily with engagements out to 300 meters or so in mind, and from what I have seen that cartridge gets the job done to those distances

The discussion thus far has hinted at two types of guns: pistols and rifles. For legal purposes, there is actually a third category, called an “any other weapon” (often abbreviated to AOW). I don’t went to get into these too much in this post except to say that the only even quasi-clear defintions for these are legal, and due to rapdily mounting innovation around legal technicalities, even these legal distinctions are starting to blur for practical purposes.

When most people hear “pistol” they think of this:

Or this:

AppleMark.

But consider the image below taken from Reddit (from https://www.reddit.com/r/ar15/comments/ff459r/not_sure_which_one_i_like_shooting_more/ ):

The guns at the top and bottom are rifles, the one in the middle is a pistol. Confused? That makes you a sensible person. But don’t worry about this for now: they are all guns. We will return to this distinction, but pistol and rifle definitions for practical purposes are at this point very much a discussion in flux. We’ll discuss this further in a later post.

Before concluding I want to clean up a little more on the terminology. I referred to the “M1 Carbine” earlier. If you’ve seen Saving Private Ryan, Band of Brothers, etc, you have seen the M1 Carbine but for the uniniated here it is:

“Carbine” is one of those funny words you see bounced around in the gun world. Everyone familiar with guns generally understands what is meant in context when the term is invoked, but a precise definition that captures every application of the term is somewhat elusive. But the M1 Carbine is a pretty good example of the generally agreed on features of a carbine: it is a generally shorter, probably more maneuverable rifle and the term is sometimes also applied to rifles that chamber less powerful cartridges. For example, he is an M1 carbine next to the M1 Garand rifle:

And here is the M1 Carbine cartridge (.30 Carbine) next to the M1 Garand cardtridge (.30-06 Springfield, often referred to a “thirty aught six”):

.30 Carbine (left) and .30-06 Springfield (right)

Clearly, the M1 Carbine chambers a smaller cartridge and is a smaller gun, at least compared with the M1 Garand. Generally, in my experience carbine implies “short” more strongly than it does “less powerful cartridge” (for example, the M-16 and its carbine counterpart, the M4, generally still chamber the same cartridge, the 5.56X45mm). There are lots of other funny terms like carbine that are useful to know if a little fuzzy (e.g. some day we’ll talke about “recce”, which makes carbine look straightforward). For now it is important just to know that such words are abundant in the gun world, which evolved from a long and varied history, leading to a lot of sediment and confusion.

Finally, some slang. Bullets are sometimes called slugs, for example. Cartridges are sometimes called rounds. Confusingly, cartridges are sometimes referred to as bullets. And catridges, bullets, etc. are often referred to generically as “ammo” or “ammunition”. You’ll get used to it and you will learn how to process the almost unending malapropisms surrounding guns and shooting if you start with a good grounding in the fundamentals.