Guns 101: Part 1

Guns are a key part of being prepared. If there is a major disruption they can be an essential source of security and food. This leads to my 12th rule of prepping:

Rule 12. Slaves and the dead are unarmed

This sounds harsh and intentionally so. You don’t want to be unarmed two months into a grid collapse. Trust me about that.

Before moving on, I need to acknowlege and emphasize that guns are a necessary but not sufficient condition for successful prepping. This is why my next rule of prepping is:

Rule 13. You can’t eat or drink bullets

But more on that later. The focus here is Rule 12.

Guns are a topic that makes a lot of people uncomfortable. This is not wholly unreasonable. Guns are dangerous and people do a lot of stupid things with them (just like they do with, say, cars). But some of the fear, and maybe some of the stupidity, is probably driven by a lack of familiarity.

Guns certainly are not the only weapons you can , or should, use when prepping. But at the same time guns are indispensable. I have run into preppers with a great aversion to guns who argue that their substitute, such as a recurve bow, is just as effective. Well, the probability of someone with a recurve defeating someone with an AR-15, for instance, isn’t zero. But it is low. Very low. In the rock, paper, scissors game in a post-disruption world without the rule of law, guns break most other weapons and defensive schemes. You should not kid yourself about that.

In this and a long series of posts to come I am going to provide an introduction to guns. I write under the assumption that the reader knows nothing about them and build from there. If you know everything up to a certain point, jump in then. Alternatively, simplification can sometimes lead to potentially misleading statements (e.g. missing important exceptions to general truths). If you feel I have done this, please call me out and I will edit appropriately.

Let’s begin at the most basic departure point:

A (“rifle”) cartridge

A gun is a device that uses a cartridge (pictured above, showing a shape often associated with “rifle’ cartridges) to deliver concentrated energy to a target via a bullet (1). The two major parts of a cartridge are the bullet (1) and the casing (2). Generally speaking, guns ignite the primer at the bottom of a casing, which then sets off a larger charge within the casing.

The bullet is the part that is shot out of the gun. The casing of the round being fired is immobilized in the chamber of the gun. This is a section of the barrel (on many guns it is technically an extension of the barrel, but let’s not worry about that) in which the round to be fired is placed ready to be fired. It is usually held in the chamber by the bolt of the gun.

The ignition of the primer (by the gun driving what is called a firing pin into the primer) and then of the charge by the primer causes gas expansion, the mounting pressure from which in turn causes the bullet to separate from the casing and accelerate down the barrel.

The energy involved in this is basically constrained within the narrow barrel between the bolt and the back of the bullet. That constrained energy feeds the acceleration of the bullet to its final velocity when it leaves the barrel. The bullet then travels beyond the muzzle of the gun.

Its trajectory thereafter reflects three basic forces. Atmospheric resistance causes it to slow, until other things being equal, it comes to a stop. Gravity causes the bullet path to fall relative to a straight line out of the barrel. Finally, atmospheric movement of air (i.e. wind) causes shifts in its trajectory as they act on the bullet. These forces operate on the bullet until it either hits something or comes to a rest somewhere.

That’s it, in essence.

To round out the anatomy of a cartridge, from the image above we have the neck (3), shoulder (4), rim (5) and base (6). The details and implications of these are not super important for now.

For those a little lost, below is another cross-sectional diagram of a cartridge, this time showing a profile more typical of a “pistol” cartridge (though to be sure, many rifles accept cartridges that look like this; for an example, Google “30 carbine” to see the cartridge for the M1 Carbine rifle from WWII) . Note the lack of a defined neck and shoulder. The bullet (1) is at the top of the cartridge and seated a bit in it. Striking the primer (5) ignites the charge (3), causing the bullet (1) to separate from the casing (2) and travel down the barrel.

A “pistol” cartridge

From the operational basics of a gun flows two big realities:

  1. What bullets actually deliver is kinetic energy, which is the energy associated with an object due to its motion. And the kinetic energy of an object is its mass times (m) the square of its velocity (v):
    e=m*v2

    In terms of the energy delivered by a bullet, there are two big implications. First, there is a big payoff in terms of kinetic energy to higher bullet mass m, which is usually measured in grains (there are 7,000 grains in a pound). Second, there is an even more quickly growing payoff to the increasing velocity at which a round travels v (usually measured in feet per second). If someone threw a bullet at your chest, you would say “owww!”. If they shot it out of a gun at your chest you might be killed. The difference mainly reflects the implications of velocity for kinetic energy.
  2. The damage a bullet does can depend on how the energy is delivered at the point of impact with the target. Some bullets designs concentrate energy (e.g. armor piercing bullets, which are in simple terms very hard and try to concentrate a huge amount of energy at a point to overcome great resistance) and some effectively act essentially to spread it (e.g. so-called “hollow point” rounds, which generally maximize damage to softer targets).
  3. The flight performance of a bullet once it leaves the barrel can also depend heavily on bullet design. For instance, some bullets experience a large amount of air resistance as captured in a low drag coefficient. This may or may not be a big deal depended on the intended mission of the bullet. For example, the AK-47 cartridge, the famous 7.62X39mm (also sometimes called the “7.62 Soviet”), has a generally low drag coefficient compared with many cartridges for similar guns. But the AK-47 was designed primarily with engagements out to 300 meters or so in mind, and from what I have seen that cartridge gets the job done to those distances

The discussion thus far has hinted at two types of guns: pistols and rifles. For legal purposes, there is actually a third category, called an “any other weapon” (often abbreviated to AOW). I don’t went to get into these too much in this post except to say that the only even quasi-clear defintions for these are legal, and due to rapdily mounting innovation around legal technicalities, even these legal distinctions are starting to blur for practical purposes.

When most people hear “pistol” they think of this:

Or this:

AppleMark.

But consider the image below taken from Reddit (from https://www.reddit.com/r/ar15/comments/ff459r/not_sure_which_one_i_like_shooting_more/ ):

The guns at the top and bottom are rifles, the one in the middle is a pistol. Confused? That makes you a sensible person. But don’t worry about this for now: they are all guns. We will return to this distinction, but pistol and rifle definitions for practical purposes are at this point very much a discussion in flux. We’ll discuss this further in a later post.

Before concluding I want to clean up a little more on the terminology. I referred to the “M1 Carbine” earlier. If you’ve seen Saving Private Ryan, Band of Brothers, etc, you have seen the M1 Carbine but for the uniniated here it is:

“Carbine” is one of those funny words you see bounced around in the gun world. Everyone familiar with guns generally understands what is meant in context when the term is invoked, but a precise definition that captures every application of the term is somewhat elusive. But the M1 Carbine is a pretty good example of the generally agreed on features of a carbine: it is a generally shorter, probably more maneuverable rifle and the term is sometimes also applied to rifles that chamber less powerful cartridges. For example, he is an M1 carbine next to the M1 Garand rifle:

And here is the M1 Carbine cartridge (.30 Carbine) next to the M1 Garand cardtridge (.30-06 Springfield, often referred to a “thirty aught six”):

.30 Carbine (left) and .30-06 Springfield (right)

Clearly, the M1 Carbine chambers a smaller cartridge and is a smaller gun, at least compared with the M1 Garand. Generally, in my experience carbine implies “short” more strongly than it does “less powerful cartridge” (for example, the M-16 and its carbine counterpart, the M4, generally still chamber the same cartridge, the 5.56X45mm). There are lots of other funny terms like carbine that are useful to know if a little fuzzy (e.g. some day we’ll talke about “recce”, which makes carbine look straightforward). For now it is important just to know that such words are abundant in the gun world, which evolved from a long and varied history, leading to a lot of sediment and confusion.

Finally, some slang. Bullets are sometimes called slugs, for example. Cartridges are sometimes called rounds. Confusingly, cartridges are sometimes referred to as bullets. And catridges, bullets, etc. are often referred to generically as “ammo” or “ammunition”. You’ll get used to it and you will learn how to process the almost unending malapropisms surrounding guns and shooting if you start with a good grounding in the fundamentals.

News: Judge Not, Finger Wavers

Today I ran across this Tweet:

The dog whistle target of this Tweet and the comments that follow should be clear enough to anyone who has witnessed our increasingly savage culture wars.

In case it wasn’t, one of the comments provided a helpful re-Tweet that translates this for the Bible thumpers among us:

After seeing this I ran immediately into this:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/asian-americans-terrified-of-coronavirus-backlash-stock-up-on-guns

I know, I know: this is silly on one level. Twitter is becoming the last refuge of folks from the Left and Right who express themselves with so little art and so much condescencion that they Tweet with all the time they saved by getting dis-invited from social events, family gatherings, etc.

But I think it establishes an important ground rule: don’t judge other people’s preps. You can offer advice, but in the end their circumstances are not yours and you cannot understand all of the elements of their decisionmaking. We are a nation of, what, 330 million people, with possibly as many individual sets of constraints, strengths and liabilities before them.

For instance, how do these two posters not know that some of these sales are in anticipation of the all too real possibility that emergency services are going to be overwhelmed by a surge of cases? How do they know they aren’t rural people, for whom protection by security services may have been a thin shield even before this current crisis happened?

I am guilty of breaking this rule. When this Covid-19 panic began I questioned, maybe even a little dismissively I am now embarassed to say, the folks who were stocking up on so much water. After all, municipal water supplies (the source of my own water) haven’t even been interrupted in Wuhan, China.

But now that I am sitting here shaking my head at these Tweets I wonder: were some of the people purchasing water on wells that might need service that might not be possible if we go into lockdown?

Tecumseh, whose image requires little excuse to embed in a post

Tecumseh once said “trouble no one about their religion”. Well, I think an analogous mandate should apply in the prepping discussion.

And even if some preps are silly, they probably do provide psychological reassurance that steadies a person emotionally, allowing them to make better decisions in the face of crisis. And that can be as important as material preps.

News from Seattle

Because if normalcy goes away, “I’m not sure what it looks like after that.”

One thing you will learn about me quickly is that I have complete disdain for the mainstream media. But if you want to learn about life in about a week in many parts of the U.S. we have the following piece on Seattle from CNN.

And in a week normalcy will be a memory in Seattle. Probably two weeks for the rest of us.

Seeing danger

It’s always the same old story. No one wants to see the danger until it’s staring them in the face.

The quote above is from the diary of Anne Frank, which I consider required reading for a prepper. (For the interested this is from the Thursday, February 3, 1944 entry.) I’ve been reminded of this quote as I have watched Covid-19 gather steam in the last week or two.

Many folks reflexively consider preppers to be crazy. And to be fair, some preppers are perhaps just a touch crazy (“I’m preparing for a hyperinflation that will set off a super volcano, which will cause a tsunami that will trigger a constitutional crisis which will lead to an earthquake by stockpiling 1.4 million rounds of 7.62X39mm ammo and 775,000 cans of tuna fish in caches I’ve hidden in my local park”). But I can’t help but to think that some part of the reaction by non-preppers is that they are pathologically reluctant to face the possibility of risk.

We also need to be fair about the speed with which this disease is moving: it doesn’t leave much time for stages of grief. But even then it would seem that many of the authorities have demonstrated a kind of gross inability to make obvious projections even a few days in advance. (Some are undoubtedly lying as well.) This is no “Orange Man Bad” rant: even our local public health authorities sound like clowns, to say nothing of local school officials and employers who appear to functionally have their head in the sand. And let’s face it: our leaders are partly a reflection of us. Most people still won’t turn and face this, and instead have retreated into denial.

Its almost as if preppers (at least some) are the people who chose to take a kind of red pill, while a lot of non-preppers are addicted to the associated blue pill.

This is already an important lesson I am going to take away from the Covid-19 episode. Yes, some preppers are nuts. But many, many non-preppers are suffering from an altogether different, and probably more dangerous, species of nuts. After all, what is the risk from caching 775,000 cans of tuna fish compared with not being prepared at all? * I suspected this already on some level, but it has become painfully obvious how true it is.

Anne was right.

* I am not advocating caching 775,000 cans of tuna. For one thing, I would probably rather be killed in the melt down than live to eat 775,000 cans of tuna fish.

News

So, apparently, ammo.com is experiencing a surge in sales in the last couple of weeks:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ammunition-sales-soar-response-coronavirus-133400231.html

North Carolina and Georgia lead the pack with 179% and 169% percent increases, but other states notable jumps include Pennsylvania (140%), Texas (128%), Florida (76%), Illinois (67%), New York (48%) and Ohio (40%). I suspect the absolute increases were strong in many other states, but they probably start from a higher base in terms of typical ammunition sales.

Speaking of starting from a low base, that’s maybe the only explanation I can think of why among calibers 40 S&W saw the biggest increase at a whopping 410%.

While the particulars here are from ammo.com’s numbers, I think we can assume this represents a fairly broad trend. And obviously this is Covid-19 driven phenomenon.

And Gold is up too. I have heard it said that ammo sales and gold often move together. Makes sense: both are types of insurance.

Of masks and men

I am going to talk about prepping in part through a series of rules or guidelines that have informed my prepping. In my last post I introduced my number one rule (“Be the gray man”) because…hey, it’s the number one rule.

And now I’ll skip to one of the last rules on my list, because I think it is timely:

Rule 22. Don’t ignore experts, or follow them

Covid-19 is a complex foe. Though we are learning about it faster than maybe any other pathogen in history (think of the terrifying darkness that, for instance, surrounded the 1918-1919 Spanish flu) I suspect that what we know now is only the slightest portion of what we will know in only a few months.

There are a lot of questions, and many of them can only be answered by folks with dense technical expertise in virology, medicine, epidemiology, public health, hospital administration, etc.

At the same time it is already clear that the experts of the moment are not infallible.

Take masks as a case in point. We are told not to buy masks because they cannot protect the general public and health care workers desperately need them for protection.

It should be self-evident that in some sense both of these claims cannot simultaneously be true. If they aren’t potentially protective then why do health care workers need them?

Now there are some complexities to proper mask usage. You need a fairly tight fit, no breaches in the seal (it’s time to shave your beard of Zeus), etc. But even health care workers fail these standards routinely (I have seen plenty of footage in the last few days of health care workers with clearly ill-fitting masks on, facial hair, etc.).

And you certainly could infect yourself by improperly handling a mask that has Covid-19 on its exterior.

But couldn’t these issues be resolved with a simple public information campaign?

It’s also true that an N95 mask won’t stop all virus particles. But this seems like a silly framing of the issue: even military grade full face CBRN masks are not an absolute guarantee of protection.

Surely properly used N95 masks must help inhibit some virus contact and thus reduce risk. Again, why would health care workers need them otherwise?

The suggestion that health care workers need these masks instead of us really means that there is a shortage of them in the health care system, at least compared with anticipated need. Now, there is some chutzpah in appeals to a shortage. At a minimum, to the extent that this is true much of our health care system failed to prep adequately. I’ve seen folks on Twitter who work in medical supplies argue that the rest of us just don’t understand that the health care sector runs on a just in time (JIT) supply model. They seem less aware of the implications of that statement for their credibility in lecturing us during an emergency.

I have also been trying to learn more about mask distribution. I have some degree of skepticism that many of the masks ordinary folks have bought really were in practice at the expense of the health care system. Yes, there is a shortage of masks, but many of the masks available to us have already travelled farther down the distribution chain from the bulk purchase level where many health care facilities operate.

Nonetheless, if health care workers face critical shortages of these masks, many will get sick. Some will die. And many others will die because sickened health care workers couldn’t treat them.

The argument that masks can’t help the general public is kind of incredible. And many of those lecturing us about it played a role in bringing us to this sad pass. But nonetheless here we are: a shortage of masks could critically impair our health care response. And that means people will die. Maybe even someone you love.

So where does that leave us? First, this Covid-19 crisis isn’t your last rodeo. Preparation in advance, by ordinary people and health care institutions, could have averted this entirely. That does not help now but is a lesson that should be retained when this all over.

Second, if you’ve got masks keep them. But make them stretch out as long as possible and only use them when it makes sense. And if you can, give any masks you can spare to folks who don’t have them.

And if you have a really large number of them, consider reaching out to your local health care provider to see if they could use some. How many masks can you realistically use yourself? Put differently, if you are putting yourself in situations where you need that many masks then you are probably raising your risk profile. Maybe by a lot.

But perhaps most importantly remember this: experts and authorities aren’t always wrong. But they aren’t exactly always right either. And this isn’t the last time this will be true in this crisis. Think carefully and critically about what you are being told. Cynicism isn’t sophistication, but faith can be misplaced.

I am a gray man

So let me say a little, but just a very little, about me.

I have been a prepper for around a decade. There were series of triggering events for me (e.g. watching the chaos and disruption in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, social distrubances in our increasingly polarized society, witnessing increasingly severe climate events, etc.). But I can’t really point to a particular moment when I became a prepper. It was more like an instinct that became more acute as time passed.

The birth of my son a few years after Katrina was a major milestone. I was responsible for the welfare of that little, dear life, and I realized I had a responsibility to anticipate and protect him.

I was quite lucky in that my wife was following a similar trajectory. (Spousal support and agreement has been an issue for some other preppers I know.)

As for my particulars:

I am middle aged. Gen X. I have an advanced degree in a technical field, but that doesn’t make me an expert in everything. Or maybe even anything.

I am unexceptional in appearance. A bit tall but that’s it. You wouldn’t think twice if I walked past you on the street.

I live in the suburbs. My neighborhood is a planned development of fairly recent vintage.

I am located in what some call the Southern Part of Heaven (i.e. south of the Mason-Dixon line) in an area that is an epicenter of the “knowledge economy”. In practice that means many of my friends, associates and acquaintances are reasonably smart people who also have acronyms after their names, are very focused and technically (if narrowly) skilled and tend to be hypercompetitive.

Most of them are also blind in some respects. The arrival of Covid-19 has burst many of their personal bubbles in very an unsettling way.

And that’s it. That’s all you get, or need, to know about me.

And maybe therein lies the most important rule of prepping: be secretive. Some refer to it as being “The Gray Man”: the one who doesn’t stick out.

So maybe that is the point of this post:

Rule 1. Be the Gray Man.

Welcome

Welcome to The Suburban Redoubt. This is a blog about preparing yourself and your family for significant social disruptions. It is a blog about prepping.

I have been a prepper for a while (more about that in another post) and have toyed with the idea of a prepper site for some time, if nothing else to share what I have learned as a prepper and learn myself from others who are following the same path.

The impetus for doing this now is the emergence of the novel coronavirus called Covid-19. As this virus has closed in on us, more and more family and friends have come to me for advice about how to prepare. This is what pushed me over the top to create a site.

I live in the burbs. It is in this context that I have existed and grown as a prepper. And while much that will be discussed here in the days, weeks, months and, if it works out, years to come is driven by that perspective, hopefully this blog will prove useful to folks in other kinds of communities. But to be sure, my target audience is the suburban prepper.

It is by this date (March 6, 2020) evident to everyone capable of recognizing risk at all that we may be in serious trouble with Covid-19. And so I do intend to talk about coronavirus, and more generally preparing for and surviving epidemics.

However, I imagine this blog will last past the present Covid-19 crisis. And toward that end this is probably the most important thing for you to know:

Covid-19 is probably not the worst disruption we are going to face in our lives.

We need to get ready.